On November 15th the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was signed.After eight years of negotiations, the world's largest free trade area has finally been announced.The 15 signatories to the RCEP, including the 10 ASEAN countries, China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Australia and New Zealand, have a total population of 2.27 billion, A GDP of 26 trillion US dollars and a total export volume of 5.2 trillion US dollars, both accounting for about 30% of the global total.
RCEP agreement, free trade, ports, shipping, light textile manufacturing related concepts, such as trade itself belongs to the good news to stimulate, but also want to clear see, is good for the chemical industry also has impact, each a friend who is engaged in chemical industry, macro policies, may want to know about their industry exactly what specific effects, don't worry, take you detailed analysis process jun.
Good news for the chemical industry
After eight years of negotiations, the RCEP, which has the largest population, the most diverse membership, the largest fta in the world and the greatest potential for development, was born.
The main contents of the agreement include: trade in goods, tariff reduction to zero;Trade in services;Investment;Technical cooperation;Mobility of people;E-commerce and data exchange;Development of small, medium and micro enterprises.The main contents include the reduction of tariffs on 90% of goods to zero, the liberalization of trade in services and investment, etc.
The core upgrade measure of RCEP is to gradually cut tariffs to 0% in the current or next 10-35 years. This is a long process, which will help China and ASEAN to form closer trade cooperation in the long run.
Analysts believe that RCEP's short-term boost to China's exports is limited, and the gradual reduction of tax rates is more of a medium - and long-term benefit, while the greater significance of RCEP lies in the establishment of a direct free trade zone between China, Japan and the ROK, especially Between China and Japan, for the first time.Given the high probability of Biden's arrival, it is expected that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which Trump withdrew from, will be revived, which will also constrain the implementation effect of RCEP, i.e., the relationship between China and the United States remains a key variable.
In the asia-pacific region, represented by China, Japan, South Korea chemical industry cluster of Asia will be complete with industry, the market scale, strong innovation ability is active, basic chemical raw materials, high-end leading fine chemical technology, chemical new material characteristic in close cooperation, China, South Korea and Japan is a prominent feature, is the Asia Pacific region and the world chemical industry an important growth pole.
The most important benefit of the FTA for the chemical industry is the elimination of China, Japan and South Korea, and tariffs on imported chemicals with ASEAN countries. An open agreement could save chemical manufacturers of each country a lot of money every year.Similarly, tariffs on imports of chemicals from treaty Countries could be reduced.The cost savings from tariff elimination will help boost the economy and job growth."
At present, The Chinese chemical market has accounted for 40% of the global chemical market.It is predicted that the Chinese chemical market will account for 50% of the global chemical market by 2030.Huge and vigorous domestic demand is the first logic behind the rise of China's chemical industry.
In addition, the 20 chapters covered by the RCEP agreement refer to:
1. Trade in goods: in the next 20 years, the category of zero-tariff commodities will reach 90% of the total;
2. Gradually realize national treatment and non-differentiated most-favored-nation treatment in service trade;
3. Encourage investment opening up, and do not set operational requirements for foreign investment in China.
Therefore, analysts believe that RCEP will promote intra-regional trade and increase China's GDP, with textile, clothing and light industrial and household appliances benefiting the most.
In view of the cost and foreign trade factors, the trend of long-term industrial chain transfer to Southeast Asian countries will continue. However, as the largest textile producer and exporter, China's textile and garment industry chain is the most perfect among the global textile exporters. The upstream fiber, the midstream fabric accessories and the downstream apparel industry all have cluster layout.Driven by the uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 outbreak, the high stability of China's supply chain will also be increasingly valued by global brand customers.
Industries, such as electrical equipment, machinery, textile and clothing, furniture, which account for a high proportion of China's exports to the other 14 countries;Third, as the world's largest manufacturer, China's accession to RCEP is expected to reduce manufacturing costs (such as iron ore) and expand the market space, which may benefit the manufacturing industry chain.
Affected by the trade agreement related to the positive, yesterday chemical plate, pesticide and fertilizer, glyphosate plate up to more than three points.
Impact on the chemical industry
The signing of RCEP represents an opportunity for China's strong industries and a challenge for weak industries.According to the estimation of the RCEP, the industries that benefit greatly from the RCEP agreement include textile and apparel, light industry, building materials, agricultural products, extractive industry, e-commerce, etc.Comparatively speaking, the industry that suffers bigger impact includes automobile and spare part, petrochemical industry.
Here, the impact mainly refers to the local small and medium-sized chemical enterprises. At present, there are four chemical clusters in the world, namely:
Asian chemical cluster represented by China, Japan and Korea
Represented by China, Japan, South Korea chemical industry cluster of Asia will be complete with industry, the market scale, strong innovation ability is active, basic chemical raw materials, high-end leading fine chemical technology, chemical new material characteristic in close cooperation, China, South Korea and Japan is a prominent feature, will be the Pacific and the world chemical industry an important growth pole.
North American chemical industry cluster represented by The United States and Canada
Represented by the United States, Canada, north American chemical industry cluster will be in the traditional chemical energy and chemical high-end chemical new material, new energy, agricultural technology innovation and seed engineering, gene lead to prominent characteristics, will become the world's leading high-end technology innovation by chemical industry, will become the world's chemical industry as the typical representative of multinational companies.
European chemical clusters represented by Germany, France, Britain and the Netherlands
The European chemical cluster, represented by Germany, France, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, will be characterized by technological innovation in high-end new chemical materials, high-end fine chemicals, high-end pharmaceuticals and terminal chemical consumer products, and become a global leader in low-carbon utilization and recycling economy, and an important growth pole for the economic development of the world and Europe.
The Middle East Gulf and South Asia chemical clusters represented by Saudi Arabia, Iran and India
The Middle East Gulf and South Asia chemical clusters represented by Saudi Arabia, Iran and India also have their own characteristics.Although the Middle East region has been plagued by political problems and geopolitics for a long time, especially the economic system defect that the Middle East region is excessively dependent on oil revenue, the inherent demand of chemical industry development in the Middle East region, especially in the Gulf region, is very urgent.
Nowadays, with the economic globalization and trade globalization, as well as the signing of free trade agreements, the horizontal flows between the four major clusters become more frequent. They are no longer divided by region, but can choose the region suitable for their own economic interests as the focus of development.
In addition, each cluster has a group of industry leaders with long history, industrial characteristics, development vitality and competitive advantage.For example, Dupont, Dow, ExxonMobil and KBR in the North American chemical cluster;Basf, Wintron, Kostron and Solway in the European chemical cluster;Saudi Aramco, Shabik and India Reliance in the Gulf and South Asia chemical clusters;Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Shin-Yue, Asahi Chemical, LG, SK, Sinopec, China National Petroleum Corporation, Cnooc, Sinochem, Wanhua Chemical, Formosa Plastics Corporation, Etc.
These leading companies represent the characteristics of The Times in a century of change: innovation, vitality, green, sustainable development and highly conscious social responsibility.They are constantly adjusting their development direction. With the signing of RCEP, many chemical giants may target the Asia-Pacific market, and the competition is bound to intensify.
All in all, RCEP represents an opportunity for China's strong industries and a challenge for weak industries.We should strengthen ourselves. The chemical industry is like other industries. No matter how the external environment changes, the most urgent thing is to strengthen our own strength.
As China continues to open up to the outside world, the time left for local Chinese enterprises to grow is getting shorter and shorter. The wheels of history are rolling and waves are sweeping away the sand. Only those who adapt to the changes of The Times can stand out in the tide!