At present, the methanol supply and demand surface is still weak, and the crude oil market rain or shine uncertainty.In this context, methanol 2009 contract can not be further up, the market is expected to face pressure risk.                       

Since The beginning of April, the domestic methanol futures contract 2009 has dipped to 1619 yuan/ton, stopped falling and stabilized, and then rebounded strongly. The futures price rose for six consecutive days and returned to 1869 yuan/ton last Friday, up 15.44% in total.In the author's opinion, the main reasons for the rapid rise of methanol futures price are as follows: the discussion of production reduction by oil producers creates a macro warm atmosphere; the advance of VAT reduction brings about increased purchasing power of methanol in domestic ports; the cost support of coal-to-methanol production; and the speculation of spring inspection anticipation.                       

Talks by oil producers have ended inconclusie

In order to reduce the negative impact of public events on oil prices and reverse the serious imbalance between supply and demand in the oil market, the United States actively brokered a meeting of most of the world's oil producers to jointly reduce production recently.Although OPEC+ producers reached a draft agreement to cut output by 10 million b/d for two months starting May 1, 2020;From July to December 2020, production will be reduced by 8 million b/d.From January 2021 to April 2022, production will be reduced by 6 million b/d.Oil producers were ultimately unable to achieve substantial results after Mexico unexpectedly blocked a new OPEC+ agreement to cut output.                       

Global oil demand has fallen by about 30%, or about 30 million barrels a day, as public events have brought the global economy to a standstill.Global oil demand is expected to contract by 6.8 million barrels a day in 2020, and poor demand has put the global oil market in a pessimistic mood.In the absence of active intervention on the supply side of the oil market, the imbalance between supply and demand of crude oil may worsen.Before the warm macro atmosphere again frustrated, indirectly affected the methanol futures market long confidence.                       

Spring inspection scale may not be as expected

With the rapid rebound of domestic methanol futures, spot prices rose significantly, with some areas over 100.According to the data, methanol enterprises in Baoji area of Guanzhong increased the price of methanol four times in a week with high quality and convenient transportation conditions, with the accumulative increase of 90 yuan/ton.At the same time, the methanol quotation in South shandong and North Shandong rose actively with the increase of 80-100 yuan/ton, and the methanol quotation in Shanxi, Hebei and Henan also rose generally.The recovery of spot quotation alleviates the situation of general loss of coal-to-methanol plant before, the willingness of enterprises to overhaul appears to fall, and the supply expectation is strengthened again.                       

Benefiting from the stable results achieved in the prevention and control of social and public events in China, many methanol plants have been reported for overhaul in April and May, involving a production capacity of about 15 million tons.Among them, there are about 10 in northwest China with a production capacity of 6.9 million tons.Shandong has four, with a capacity of about 2.92 million tons;There are three in central China with a capacity of about 1.6 million tons.There are four in North China, with a capacity of about 470,000 tons.Currently, the capacity under maintenance is about 4.865 million tons, which is relatively small (the national total production capacity of methanol is 90 million tons) and lower than the same period last year.Some units due to spare parts to be delayed to May - June maintenance, or even to the autumn maintenance.In other words, the scale of domestic methanol overhaul in spring this year may be less than expected, giving the market more limited benefits.                       

Olefin production will be significantly reduced

Under the current background of high coal price and low oil price, the profit of olefin from oil is greatly expanded, while the profit of olefin from methanol is not good. As a result, a number of olefin projects were scheduled to be repaired in April.Data showed that shenhua Yulin and Shandong Yangmei Hengtong had been repaired with 600,000-ton/year olefin in early April.Zhejiang Xingxing 690,000 tons/year olefin has not been restarted;Nanjing Chengzhi 600,000-ton/year olefin plan to overhaul on April 15;Inner Mongolia Jiutai 600,000-ton/year olefin, Ningxia Baofeng 600,000-ton/year olefin, China Coal Mengda 600,000-ton/year olefin have maintenance plans in the later period.In general, olefins, as the largest demand for methanol, will face the risk of a substantial reduction in production.                       

Under the background of increasing supply and weakening demand, China's total methanol port inventory exceeds one million tons.According to statistics, as of early April, the stock of methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang and South China) was 1.0705 million tons.The import volume of the first two months is higher than the same period of last year. It is expected that the import scale of methanol in March will be 800,000 -- 850,000 tons, and in April it will be 900,000 -- 950,000 tons.                       

To sum up, methanol supply and demand is still weak, and the crude oil market is uncertain, with uncertain macro expectations.Methanol 2009 contract lacks the basis for medium-term rise, the futures price cannot move higher, and the future market is expected to face pressure risks.